Sri Lanka and Indo-Pacific maritime strategies

“Every nation, in every region of the world, has to take a decision: either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.”– President George W. Bush, in his address to the joint session of Congress on 20th September, 2001.

The former US Indo-Pacific Commander, Admiral Harry Harris, delivering his keynote speech at the Galle Dialogue 2016, attributed Sri Lanka’s strategic importance to the US to three factors: “Location, location, and location.”

These words, by Admiral Harris, amply highlight the geopolitical importance of Sri Lanka in the Indo-Pacific region and in the global context. Former Indian National Security Adviser (NSA) and Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon, in his book, Choices, described Sri Lanka as a “permanent aircraft carrier for India in the middle of the Indian Ocean.” Though this claim could politically be contentious, it reflects a geopolitical reality of the region. It is no secret that other global powers, such as China and Russia, also view Sri Lanka through a similar geopolitical lens. On the other hand, this island nation is located amidst major sea routes; just a few miles south of the Dondra Head Lighthouse, over 120 ships pass daily, carrying goods upon which the health of global markets depends.

In this context, it is essential for Sri Lanka to adopt a pragmatic policy on strategic defence diplomacy engagements with regional and global superpowers, while ensuring its sovereignty and integrity are preserved, all the while respecting the national foreign policy stance of remaining non-aligned and neutral. Thus, defence diplomacy should be a considerable concern of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy.

What is Defence Diplomacy?

It refers to the pursuit of foreign policy objectives through the peaceful deployment of defence resources and capabilities.

In the post-Cold War period, Western defence establishments, led by the UK, created a new international security arrangement focused on defence diplomacy. Although it originated many centuries before the world wars, defence diplomacy is now used successfully by both the global West and the developing South to further national strategic and security interests.

The work of defence diplomacy is not limited to ‘track-one diplomacy’ (official government-led diplomacy) engagements, such as defence/military attachés/advisers at diplomatic missions abroad. Engagements, such as personnel exchanges, bilateral meetings, staff talks, training, exercises (air, land, and naval), regional defence forums, and ship/aircraft visits, are also key in fostering track-two diplomatic engagements to bolster defence diplomacy.

Some experts note these extended engagements can be considered one of the best strategies for regional and global conflict prevention, as these interactions enhance understanding while diluting misconceptions between nation-states.

Sri Lanka’s position at the centre of the Indian Ocean makes it an important maritime hub. The island nation’s deep-water harbours, relatively peaceful environment, and democratic governing system have been the main attractions for many countries with strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.

Empty oil tankers sail from the East to the West to replenish, while goods from Japan, China, and South Korea sail to Europe, the Gulf, and Indian markets through the major maritime routes that pass Sri Lanka, thrusting this island nation into the heart of the global economy. However, the importance of the location is not limited to economic gains; the strategic significance of Sri Lanka’s ports, due to their access to some of the key regions of the world, has garnered global attention.

The popular belief is that China may soon become the most powerful global superpower. However, I argue otherwise, mainly due to four key factors:

*The US is still the global economic giant; its GDP still exceeds that of China by a significant margin.

*The US continues to dominate global military strength rankings – China ranks third.

*The US is the only country actively engaged in strategic areas across all six regions of the world, with its Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines deployed in all these regions. No other country has the capability of already-deployed combat forces.

*The US Navy operates 11 aircraft carriers for global power projection out of the world’s 43 active carriers, whereas China has only two in active service, with a third under construction.

*Therefore, China has a long way to go to achieve superpower status, particularly from a defence perspective.

That said, one could argue that China is also rapidly aspiring to become a global superpower through a different strategy. Its overseas investments, mainly in the construction of harbours and ports as well as ship/submarine building programmes, are impressive new tactics for achieving maritime prowess, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Being heavily dependent on energy supplies from the Gulf to keep its economy afloat, China has adopted two strategies to dominate the Indian Ocean, which has now become its lifeline.

The first is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping in September 2013 while speaking to the Indonesian Parliament. The BRI has now become China’s ambitious foreign policy objective for the 21st century. It is a vision that encompasses over 60 countries with a combined population of more than four billion people throughout Asia, Central Asia, the Indian Ocean littoral, and Europe. Sri Lanka is a major stakeholder in this BRI initiative.

China’s second strategy is not officially announced but remains a geographical hypothesis projected by the US and other Western researchers in 2004 – the ‘String of Pearls.’ The term refers to a network of Chinese military and commercial maritime facilities (harbours and ports) along its sea lines of communication, extending from mainland China to the Port of Sudan in the Horn of Africa. US and Indian strategists claim that the Colombo and Hambantota harbours, where Chinese presence and investments are highly visible, are major components of this strategy. Of course, China denies this hypothesis, insisting that these engagements are merely bilateral investments unrelated to military interests. Nevertheless, there was a concerning narrative within Sri Lanka regarding Chinese military presence at Hambantota Port during its initial stages, which was vehemently denied by both the Sri Lankan and Chinese governments.

In this context, several defence and maritime alliances have emerged in a bid to contain China, mainly due to these two-pronged developments. One such regional collaborative defence response is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) – a strategic dialogue between the US, India, Japan, and Australia. The leaders of these four nations met for the first time in Washington, DC, in September 2021. Among these players, Australia has adopted a more aggressive posture, signing the AUKUS (Australia, the UK, and the US) pact, which allows Australia to develop nuclear submarines. Though not publicly stated, it is clear that this move aims to counter Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. However, the AUKUS deal faced objections from traditional allies like France and NATO.

On the other hand, the US, Japan, and India have separate collective Indo-Pacific strategies, which place a strategic focus on Sri Lanka. A Defence Adviser to the Australian High Commission in Colombo was appointed three years ago, signalling that defence diplomacy with Australia is becoming a higher priority in Sri Lanka’s bilateral agenda.

In this context, balancing the existing supremacy of the US with the emerging powers, such as China, primarily through defence diplomacy, has become one of the most important aspects of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy. Sri Lanka could take lessons from Singapore, which presently serves as a logistics hub for all US Navy ships. Providing logistical support to warship visits is also a highly lucrative business. It is noteworthy to mention that the security and stability of a country are extremely important for foreign warship visits.

Another significant factor is the influence of our neighbour, India, which does not want Sri Lanka to become a playground for rival superpowers. Furthermore, Colombo Harbour is of vital importance to India, handling 60 percent of its containerised cargo transshipments. Last week, Sri Lanka demonstrated to the world that even the largest container ship in the world can enter and load/unload at Colombo Harbour, showcasing its promise and capacity as one of the most important ports globally.

The most important aim of India’s foreign policy is to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Indian foreign policy is said to be influenced by the teachings of Kautilya’s Arthashastra – a statecraft treatise written by the ancient Indian philosopher and royal adviser to Emperor Chandragupta Maurya in the 4th century BCE.

Under whatever circumstances, Sri Lanka must be cautious to ensure its actions do not jeopardise the security interests of India. The closest neighbour is often the most important player, even in domestic affairs, and this argument is even more applicable to a country’s foreign policy formation. The next-door neighbour is the fastest responder in times of danger or crisis, as seen in recent incidents such as the X-Press Pearl disaster. Therefore, it is a lesson Sri Lanka must remember when formulating its foreign policy and defence diplomacy strategies in the Indo-Pacific era.

(The witer is Former Navy Commander and Former Chief of Defence Staff, Former Chairman, Trincomalee Petroleum Terminals Ltd., Former Managing Director, Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, Former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

By Admiral Ravindra C Wijegunaratne 
WV, RWP and Bar, RSP, VSV, USP, NI (M) (Pakistan),
ndc, psn, Bsc(Hons) (War Studies) (Karachi) MPhil (Madras)